Climatologists note that while everyone is now concerned about the melting of the Greenland ice due to the greenhouse effect, it is much more important to answer why it became covered with ice and why the carbon dioxide content dropped to such low levels for such a long time. If scientists can solve this puzzle, then perhaps they will be able to find the keys to solving modern environmental problems. In some places, melt water forms entire lakes and rivers on the glacier, which can exist for years without freezing.
> The unusually thin crust beneath Greenland's surface partly explains the abnormally high rate of melting of its ice cap, as hot magmatic masses beneath its surface act as one giant "boiler", climatologists say in a paper published in the journal Nature Geoscience. “The temperature at the foot of the glaciers, and accordingly, their condition, simultaneously depends on the flow of heat from the bowels of the Earth and temperature fluctuations on their surface. Due to this, there are areas in Greenland where the foot of the glaciers is melting and which are located next to completely untouched and cold ice," said Irina Rogozhina from the Helmholtz Center in Potsdam (Germany).
Rogozhina and her colleagues, including Russian geophysicists from the geophysical institutes of the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow and Novosibirsk, using a special climate model, discovered that the rapid melting of Greenland's ice was associated with the unusually thin crust on its territory. As the authors of the article note, the heat generated in the bowels of the Earth and arriving at its surface has almost no effect on the climate, since it is much weaker than the thermal energy coming along with the rays of the Sun. On the other hand, under a multimeter layer of ice the situation changes, and this heat begins to play a significant role in the temperature balance and the condition of the glacier. Guided by this idea, climatologists built a model of the Greenland glaciers, which took into account the action of both the rays of the Sun and the bowels of the Earth, and tested it in practice.

Despite the fact that Greenland is located on an ancient tectonic platform, the earth's crust on its territory, judging by the observations of seismologists, is unusually thin, reaching only a quarter of the expected thickness in some points, and about 60-66% in other areas. According to the researchers, adding this feature of the island's interior to the model significantly improved its predictions, which actually demonstrates that this underground "boiler" is indeed accelerating the melting of the Greenland ice cap.

A team of biologists from the University of Buffalo (USA), led by Dr. Beata Xato, found that all the mathematical models of the melting of Greenland ice that have been created so far were overly optimistic: this threatening process is actually going faster. The study, the full results of which were published in the latest issue of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), is reported on the website (e) ScienceNews. Greenland is the second largest glacial mass on Earth, after Antarctica. If all the ice on it melts, the level of the world's oceans will rise by an average of 6 m, which threatens disasters for residents of the coastal regions of many countries. It is not surprising that scientists have been studying the melting of Greenland ice for a long time and building models that should allow them to predict its dynamics. Scientists from the University at Buffalo showed that until now all these models were simplified and gave too optimistic estimates. To do this, Dr. Xato and his colleagues analyzed a large amount of data obtained, firstly, from the NASA ICESat satellite, created and launched into orbit precisely for these purposes, and, secondly, from field studies in Greenland carried out as part of Operation IceBridge project. In general, data from 100 thousand locations was analyzed for the period from 1993 to 2012.

Analysis of such extensive and complete information showed that Greenland glaciers behave in a more complex manner than previously thought. While some of them are steadily melting, the thickness of others, on the contrary, is increasing. And still others even “pulsate.” All this depends on a complex combination of factors - local climatic and hydrological conditions, the shape of the glacier, hydrology, and so on. In total, geologists from the University at Buffalo counted over 240 glaciers in Greenland with a width of 1.5 km or more, and divided them, according to their behavior, into 7 groups. It was a detailed approach. If we take the whole picture as a whole, it turned out that in fact from 2003 to 2009 (for this period there is the most complete data) the Greenland ice sheet lost 243 gigatons of ice, which annually led to an increase in sea levels by 0.68 millimeters . This is more than scientists have previously assumed.

The authors of the study hope that their results will now allow them to build more accurate models of the melting of Greenland's ice. “Our division of glaciers into groups will help us select the most representative samples from them, and based on their parameters, create models of what is happening that are closer to reality,” said Dr. Xato. The results of another study conducted by scientists from the University of Leeds (UK) will certainly help complete the picture. They studied the influence of lakes that form on the surface of the glacier on the melting of Greenland's glaciers. The results are described in an article in the journal Nature Climate Change. At the same time, data from satellites was also used, only now from NASA, and belonging to the European Space Agency (ESA).

It turned out that migrating glacial lakes are now grouped along the coast of Greenland, forming a “belt” about 100 kilometers wide. Being darker than the ice around them, they absorb the sun's rays and thereby increase the temperature around them - as a result, the ice melts along the line of lakes and pieces of the glacier break off and float into the ocean. So far, this process is proceeding extremely slowly, but by 2060, the area of ​​such lakes, according to scientists, will double, and then they will make a significant contribution to the reduction in the area of ​​Greenland ice. Let us note that 2014 gave us another reason to worry about the ice of Greenland. A new temperature record was recorded there in June.

A canyon created by meltwater flow.

Melting glaciers. Photo: klem@s / Flickr

Due to the melting of glaciers, Paris and London will become islands, a sea will appear in the Urals, and Russia will become an industrial leader

They say that global warming was invented by Al Gore, who worked as US Vice President in the Bill Clinton administration. Of course, the climate on the planet was changing before him, but never before have the results of climatologists’ research been raised on the shield by government politicians. But Gore brilliantly realized that with the help of ecology you can make money (through greenhouse gas emission quotas) and put pressure on competing economies. This is how the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol of 1997, supplementing it, came into being, on the basis of which the quota trading mechanism began to function on January 1, 2008.

However, it should be recognized that the issue of global climate change exists in itself and scientists actually record its manifestations in the environment. Moreover, we are not talking about some abstract increase in some average annual temperature by a fraction of a degree, but about consequences that have a very tangible impact on people’s lives today.

For example, at the European Geosciences Union General Assembly conference held in April 2016 in Vienna, a group of scientists led by Marcel Nikolaus from the Helmholtz Center in Bremerhaven made a report from which it follows that this coming summer there will be the most significant reduction in the area of ​​Arctic ice in the entire history of observations. And experts from the UK Meteorological Service expect new heat records this year, despite the fact that last year, 2015, was already recognized by them as the warmest in 146 years.

Usually, at the everyday level, global warming most often comes down only to the melting of ice and the resulting rise in sea levels. In reality, the question is much more complex and much more interesting. It concerns not only the climate as such, but also significant changes in the economy and politics - both negative and quite beneficial for Russia. But first things first.

How Paris will become an island

NASA and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, based on an analysis of satellite images, believe that the level of the world's seas is now rising by about 3.2 mm per year. This is a lot, since back in 2012 the process speed was only 1.9 mm. At first glance, the numbers are not impressive, but the process has already led to the beginning of the splitting of large glacial masses. For example, a piece with an area of ​​12 square meters broke off from the Jakobshavn glacier in Western Greenland last summer. km, which has now completely melted. The incident confirms scientists’ suspicions that the entire glacier has begun to slide into the ocean. If, or rather, when this happens, the mass of its ice will be enough to raise the level of the world's oceans by at least 50 centimeters.

The matter is not limited to the Greenland glacier. In the next 10–15 years, the prospect of a complete disappearance of the polar ice cap in the Northern Hemisphere in the summer is quite real, as well as a progressive reduction in ice volumes in other places, including in mountain ranges on the continents. Based on the scientific data available today, the UN has made a forecast from which it follows that over the next hundred years the level of the world's seas will rise by 6.4 meters.

This is the height of a two-story house.

Now is the time to remember that Venice and Astrakhan are only 1 meter above the current ocean, Kaliningrad and Odessa - 2 meters, Pisa and Bruges - 3, Vladivostok and Bangkok - 4, Shanghai and St. Petersburg - 6, Sochi - at 9 meters. About 75% of Australia will remain, and the rest of the continent, from Adelaide to Lake Eyre, will be occupied by inland sea.

However, much greater changes await Europe. A rise in global sea levels of already 2 meters means flooding of at least 40% of the Netherlands. Considering that when dams are built, their height must exceed the peak height of storm waves by a margin, even in this case a wall more than 6–7 meters high, stretching along the entire coastline of the country of 451 kilometers, is needed for protection. In reality, it will be necessary to build 2.5 times more, since, in addition to the seashore, it also needs to protect the floodplains of numerous rivers. Even at this level, the scale of the necessary costs exceeds the economic capabilities of the country, so the construction of a 15-20-meter wall is out of the question even theoretically.

In short, in 100 years the Netherlands will be the bottom of the sea. However, they are not alone. Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark and most of Great Britain will turn into a handful of islands of different sizes. England, from Scotland to the English Channel, will sink almost completely - as, by the way, will France. Our ancestors suspected something when they built their capitals on the hills: Paris and London would become cities on an island, and the British would have a much larger capital island.

Russia will be separated from Europe by a huge sea, resulting from the confluence of the Caspian, Black, Kara and Baltic seas. It will wash away the entire Baltic region, except for a small part of southern Lithuania, eastern Belarus and northeastern Ukraine. Also, the Ural Lowland will turn into a shallow sea, and the Ural Mountains will become islands.

Houseboats on the coast of the Netherlands. Photo: iagua.es

Good and bad climate change

Such global changes will cause many accompanying processes. For example, more than 800 million people live in Europe today. Flooding of its territory will create a problem for their survival, which means it will give rise to migration processes comparable in consequences to the Great Migration of Peoples. And this applies not only to Europe. Most of Turkey, part of Iran and almost the entire territory of North Africa, including Egypt, will go under water.

But this issue will be resolved at the political level, and we will focus on the climate, the changes of which are not as clear-cut as it might seem at first glance. Progressive increases in average annual temperatures will reduce agricultural productivity in tropical and subtropical areas. It will become not only too hot, but also not humid enough. In particular, desertification could threaten the entire African continent south of the Sahara, but the prospect of the appearance of a steppe climate there (as in today's Kalmykia) is more likely, since a fair portion of the black continent will also become islands.

In general, according to WHO forecasts, over the next hundred years the number of hungry people in Africa alone will increase by 600 million people, and in the world as a whole it could reach 2 billion. For Russia, this will mean the opportunity to become the dominant global food producer. The current agricultural regions - the Don basin, the North Caucasus, the Lower Volga region, the Southern Urals, Altai and the steppe part of Southern Siberia - will be negatively impacted by increased water shortages during the growing season, which will reduce their productivity by 20–30%. But at the same time, global changes will make vast new parts of the country’s territory in Siberia and the Far East accessible to normal mass farming. So far, soil fertility there is significantly lower than in the Black Earth Zone, but a change in flora will gradually enrich the Siberian soil.

Geography and economics

Despite the frank alarmism of the study, this scenario promises Russia significantly more advantages than problems. We, as a state, will be able to preserve not only the majority of the territory in general, but also the bulk of the most developed and technically advanced areas. The flooding of part of the Urals and Western Siberia, of course, will necessitate the resettlement of 10–12 million people, but, firstly, there is room, and secondly, there is enough time for this. The problem with the resettlement of St. Petersburg will turn out to be noticeably more serious (especially if a decision is made to move the city’s unique architectural complex to a new location), but this is nothing compared to the densification of the French, who will be left with 10–13% of the country’s territory.

And most importantly, Russia will be able to retain the largest part of its industrial potential, only a fifth of which is located at the bottom of future seas. In the USA this share is at least 67%, in China - 72–75%. The fact is that most American and Chinese factories are built on the coastal strip - this makes it more convenient to deliver their products to ports for loading onto ships. In Russia, the main part of the coast is northern, so factories had to be built on rivers. The changes will certainly have a positive impact on the role and place of our country in a future global warmer world.

Of course, one should not take all these forecasts too literally and straightforwardly. They are made by people, and to err is human. But we can say with confidence that the world is changing at an unprecedented pace, and tomorrow will no longer be the same as it was yesterday. Changes are inevitable and global. But we have time to think, prepare and methodically adapt to the new reality.

On an inaccessible coastline at the very bottom of the world, the enormous glaciers of West Antarctica flow into the Amundsen Sea. For decades, scientists have been monitoring rocks, ice and oceans to see how quickly the latter would retreat if the planet warmed. A new study shows that three of the Amundsen Sea's frozen locks are melting faster than previously thought. Thus, the threat of a collapse of the ice sheet, which will raise sea levels by several meters, increases.

A ship near Antarctica on a sunny day. Ayamik | Shutterstock

Scientists have long considered the Amundsen Sea to be the Achilles heel of West Antarctica. Back in the 1970s and 1980s. it has been described as the continent's most vulnerable spot. Warm ocean waters pounding against the base of glaciers can cause ice to jump out of its rocky base, much as ice cubes rise when a drink is poured into a glass. When the ice breaks away from what is called the bedding line, it starts a chain reaction that can cause severe melting.

View of the Amundsen Sea Bay. NASA

Satellite and radar data show that West Antarctica's two largest glaciers, Pine Island and Thwaites, have experienced miles of ice loss since 2000, causing fresh water to drain from the ice into the ocean. This process is so active that glaciologists recently declared that the complete collapse of the Amundsen Sea embayment, whose glaciers contain enough water to raise global sea levels by 1.2 meters, is unstoppable.

The rate of decline of glaciers. NASA

A new study led by glaciologist Ala Khazendar of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory indicates that ice loss will occur sooner than scientists previously thought. Comparing aerial surveys of Antarctic glaciers from 2002 and 2009, Khazendar noticed changes in the thickness of three of them. The Smith, Pope, and Koehler glaciers have noticeably thinned out near their onlap lines. The Smith Glacier, in particular, sticks out like a finger: in just 7 years, its ice cover has shrunk by 300-490 meters.

The study highlights the desperate need for more precise measurements to understand how quickly, where and why Antarctica's ice cover is shrinking. “These glaciers are the gates and gatekeepers of Antarctica,” says Khazendar. They are changing very quickly and we need more information.”